Early detection of market and technology signals with software support
The joint research project was headed by CONWEAVER, working closely with three project partners to develop connections of manual and automatic analysis of weak signals.
Indications of change in markets and technologies appear at an early stage. For instance, research institutions as well as companies leave trails and signals on the web that are readable and exploitable. Initial question: "How can you specifically track trend signals early?" Even professional market observers are often overwhelmed by the daily increasing information overload:
- Which are the current topics?
- Who works in these areas?
- Who works together with whom?
- How strong are the correlations?
The idea to couple a consultation process with automated semantic methods and intelligent visualizations was developed to answer those questions for restricted domains more accurately than previously possible.
Project Scope
The project SignalTracing (HA-Projekt-Nr.: 290/11-35) ran from August 2011 to December 2012 and was sponsored within the scope of Hessen ModellProjekte with funds of the LOEWE – Landes-Offensive zur Entwicklung Wissenschaftlich-ökonomischer Exzellenz), Förderlinie 3: KMU-Verbundvorhaben.
With this project we wanted to explore a new connection between manual and automatic analysis. An unprecedented pooling of core competencies of project partners was the result: An extensive consultation process of C21 Consulting facilitates focusing on and modeling of an observation domain on the web, which, with the help of a CONWEAVER and Fraunhofer IGD IT tool, is then interactively analyzed.
With this project we wanted to explore a new connection between manual and automatic analysis. An unprecedented pooling of core competencies of project partners was the result: An extensive consultation process of C21 Consulting facilitates focusing on and modeling of an observation domain on the web, which, with the help of a CONWEAVER and Fraunhofer IGD IT tool, is then interactively analyzed.
Connecting IT and Consulting
At the beginning of an analysis, an initial consulting process permits the focusing on and modeling of an observation domain. This definition is used to find relevant data sources on the Web and to focus the analysis.The determined web excerpt is then analyzed with the help of an interactive tool. Various questions therefore result in different snapshots of the status quo. During the comprehensive consulting process, specific recommendations are then derived that extend beyond the existing, actual state into the future.
Connecting Semantics and Visualization
The analysis and navigation in the observation domain is supported by semantic and visual technologies running in the background. Questions like “Who does what and when?” can be answered with the IT tool aggregately, spanning knowledge networks. For a scientific representation of the results please see Stab et. al. (2012).
The new methods for the detection of technology and market changes were developed and tested within the project using a specific technological topic of the SGL Group.
Comments on the project results
SignalTracing is one of the few semi-automated methods that give enterprise developers and strategists in businesses orientation and true decision support in regard to the often unmanageable amount of potentially relevant information.
The linking of methods of visual analysis and the visualization of semantics supports the analysts to analyze trends and signals, to explore, and to make the right decisions. The concepts and visualizations developed in this project are based on the SemaVis technology developed by Fraunhofer IGD and enriched with approaches from the visual analysis.
Dr. Jörn Kohlhammer, Fraunhofer IGD
SignalTracing distinguishes itself from similar tools with its clear visualizations: The results of the analysis are presented clearly and comprehensibly across multiple dimensions. In this way, the status quo and development of topics, markets, and players can be identified and compared in early and advanced stages. Through this, additional activities, i.e. investments, can be planned and decided upon more easily. The use of SignalTracing in companies is therefore not only conceivable within strategy development, but also in research & development or other areas in which an early recognition of the current situation or changes is important.
Fabian Sarsam, Strategy Development SGL Group
Conclusion
Through the combination of consulting and semantic-visual IT tool, a target-oriented identification of important topics, companies, developments and relationships in web excerpts is made possible. The analysis of the status quo and resulting recommendations can support decision-making in strategy development, investment and R&D planning.
